Overview of Trends over Time:Graphs on Terrorism
出处：按学科分类—政治、法律 BERKSHIREPUBLISHINGGROUP《PatternsofGlobalTerrorism1985-2005：U.S.DepartmentofStateReportswithSupplementaryDocumentsandStatistics》第973页（3693字）
Anna Sabasteanski
Although the U.S. Department of State has overall responsibility for producing an annual terrorism report, other government offices provide data and analysis that contribute to various portions of the report.The Central Intelligence Agency’s Counterterrorism Center (CTC), the successor Terrorist Threat Integration Center (TTIC), and the new National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) have played a critical role in collecting and analyzing international incidents, and in providing the Department of State with the data used in the charts and graphs included in the annual reports. These statistics are only one measure for analyzing terrorism, and should never be the only measure used.
Terrorism analysis spreads far and wide, using a broad range of sources that range from local news sources to data intercepts.While news of mass casualties reaches the international press, local incidents and those that fail often fall below this radar screen. Detailed terrorism analysis incorporates attempted incidents, and uses data obtained from even the smallest events to help understand current and emerging threats. However, the annual reports focus only on those considered significant.This definition is something of a moving target, and in practice it has come down to a consensus evaluation among the terrorism analysts, department officials, and the Department of State’s Independent Review Panel (IDP).
To develop the graphs in this section, we used data provided in Patterns of Global Terrorism, the MIPT Terrorism Knowledge Base, which integrates data from the RAND Terrorism Chronology and RAND-MIPT Terrorism Incident databases, and the NCTC’s Worldwide Incidents Tracking System (WITS). From this data, we designed a set of graphs that chart incidents, casualties, targets, and tactics. The sources for each category are cited in their respective overviews.
The WITS database was launched in July 2005, as a major initiative of the new organization and in connection with the Department of State’s shift to Country Reports on Terrorism, with NCTC providing the Chronology and Graphs separately. On its website (http://www.tkb.org/NCTCMethod ology.jsp), NCTC describes its methodology. Describing terrorist attacks as “incidents in which subnational or clandestine groups or individuals deliberately or recklessly attacked civilians or noncombatants,” they offer an important caveat that such determination “can be more art than science” due to incomplete information and details that emerge over time.
To help limit subjectivity, they use counting rules such as eliminating failed or foiled attacks, hoaxes, spontaneous hate crimes, and genocide.They categorize “event type,” but warn that incidents, particularly multiple attacks, can be hard to categorize.The examples of distinguishing between terrorism, crime, sectarian and other violence in Iraq and Afghanistan is particularly difficult. NCTC also attempts to include “defining characteristics” to provide more detail about motive, victim, and so on.
The data specified numbers killed, wounded, and kidnapped. According to NCTC, “Kidnapped victims who were later killed are counted as killed, and kidnapped victims either liberated or still in captivity are counted as kidnapped.” In addition, information regarding damage estimates is given: “Light ($1 to $500 thousand), Moderate ($500 thousand to $20 million), or Heavy (over $20 million).” This type of data, though difficult to assess, helps give an overall sense for trends in attacks.